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View Full Version : Who's ready for the market crash?



psychobilly
06-27-2008, 04:37 PM
1) News media's reporting a bear market today
2) oil setting another record high
3) People ordering "cheap" summer heating oil finding out it cost 4.30-4.60 a gallon right now. (holy shit)
4) the dollar continues to fall, announced recently that its fall far surpassed what experts predicted for its mid year 2008 mark.
5) 2 days of significant market losses and a weekend to speculate about it.
6) China's market in a downward spiral taking huge amounts of american investors with it, forbes reporting it may not recover for at least a decade.
7) 5 months of significant job losses

Were in the middle of amazing times right now, it would be wise to pay attention. Doom and gloom? What's your odds for the crash happening on monday? I'd give a 1:1 or 50%.

OverkillZJ
06-27-2008, 04:38 PM
You've got to be ****ing kidding me. All I can say to most of your political posts is... WOW!

psychobilly
06-27-2008, 04:46 PM
It crashed in 87 for less reason, black monday. WOW.

avenged7foldhc
06-27-2008, 04:47 PM
it wont crash, not yet at-least.. its going to continue to decline until whoever becomes president 'miraculously' "fixes" everything so that people will think that hes great and continue to follow blindly..

DMG
06-27-2008, 04:53 PM
Imho a correction is overdue.

MF Steve!
06-27-2008, 04:59 PM
I have a belly button.

BAD_GNR
06-27-2008, 05:05 PM
Jeffy likes apples.

OverkillZJ
06-27-2008, 05:06 PM
http://icanhascheezburger.files.wordpress.com/2007/10/128347764351562500.jpg

OverkillZJ
06-27-2008, 05:08 PM
http://icanhascheezburger.files.wordpress.com/2008/06/funny-pictures-your-cat-needs-you-to-come-in-on-caturday.jpg

YJBeef
06-27-2008, 05:13 PM
would be a great time to buy

notmYJ
06-27-2008, 06:12 PM
Guys....Seriously... I just looked outside and.....THE SKY IS FALLING!!!!!!

crazyasianofpa
06-27-2008, 06:34 PM
Guys....Seriously... I just looked outside and.....THE SKY IS FALLING!!!!!!


Yes, I too thought the sky was falling but it was a big frozen turd from a passing 747....less weight=better gas mileage.

notmYJ
06-27-2008, 06:57 PM
Oh.. well then.....Nevermind...

john00TJ
06-27-2008, 07:18 PM
http://i261.photobucket.com/albums/ii74/john02r600tj/EngravedBarrel.jpg

mudforblood
06-27-2008, 09:12 PM
http://wallpaperstock.com:81/wallpapers/1287_1024.jpg

OverkillZJ
06-27-2008, 09:22 PM
....Awesome!

trailblaze
06-27-2008, 09:48 PM
i just bought a logging truck full of cherry for 400 bucks... screw oil, i'll buy about 1000 bucks worth in case my wood get wet...my garden is big enough to last me well into the next season (i still have cans from last yr), i have finally convinced my wife i need a Yahama Vstar cycle due to gas being high ( i wasn't allowed to buy one because it was dangerous)....plus i made friends with the right people last hunting season so now i can bag deer all yr round for meat...i've just bought 5 pounds of gun powder off some old guy for 50 bucks to make my own bullets...

if i had a well for h2o and some solar panels for electricity I'd sit back and make my homemade wine and laugh at the yuppies who are crying when they have to sell their esclades

Wrecker
06-27-2008, 09:52 PM
Old powder could be bad. Make a few and test before you waste your time.

DMG
06-28-2008, 12:54 AM
None of us are market insiders. By the time info reaches the holler you live in psychobilly, the worst is over and the smart guys are buying up all the underpriced stocks. :flipoff2:



Just in case I am wrong, I have stockpiled an enormous amount of ammo and a few hundred pounds of rice.

YZEATER
06-28-2008, 09:49 AM
i just bought a logging truck full of cherry for 400 bucks... screw oil, i'll buy about 1000 bucks worth in case my wood get wet...my garden is big enough to last me well into the next season (i still have cans from last yr), i have finally convinced my wife i need a Yahama Vstar cycle due to gas being high ( i wasn't allowed to buy one because it was dangerous)....plus i made friends with the right people last hunting season so now i can bag deer all yr round for meat...i've just bought 5 pounds of gun powder off some old guy for 50 bucks to make my own bullets...

if i had a well for h2o and some solar panels for electricity I'd sit back and make my homemade wine and laugh at the yuppies who are crying when they have to sell their esclades

sweet, you gotta show me how to make bullets from gun powder.


i got some extra tin foil if any you guys need some.

crazyasianofpa
06-28-2008, 09:55 AM
None of us are market insiders. By the time info reaches the holler you live in psychobilly, the worst is over and the smart guys are buying up all the underpriced stocks. :flipoff2:



Just in case I am wrong, I have stockpiled an enormous amount of ammo and a few hundred pounds of rice.


Hmmmmmmmm rice!!

trailblaze
06-28-2008, 07:33 PM
sweet, you gotta show me how to make bullets from gun powder.


i got some extra tin foil if any you guys need some.


well the powder is the most expensive part... my father-in-law built a "melting" pot to cast his own lead bullets...so i;m covered there... i have a RCBS reloading system...primers are the last part needed, and they are pretty cheap...

DMG
06-28-2008, 10:38 PM
well the powder is the most expensive part... my father-in-law built a "melting" pot to cast his own lead bullets...so i;m covered there... i have a RCBS reloading system...primers are the last part needed, and they are pretty cheap...

Better stock up on primers.

I have a 5 gallon bucket of wheel weights and a Lee melting pot that are waiting for me to start reloading again.

psychobilly
06-29-2008, 01:26 AM
You've got to be ****ing kidding me. All I can say to most of your political posts is... WOW!

This is an economic and social post, not a political one. I realize you dont respect my political views and I'm fine with that as I assure you I have even less respect for yours. This is a social topic that I think could or at least should make for some interesting discussion. I'm not predicting a collapse, just pointing out how we are set up for one. The tumblers just keep falling into place. Indias market crashed friday, its down like 50 billion dollars. The wall street journal's Greg Zuckerman is going to report today (sunday) that even exxon stock is down about 8% on the year. Thats not going to sit well with common investors, exxon with billions in profit but the stock is down? This is the worst june for the market since 1930. Theres going to be a bunch of tension in mondays market, I find it interesting and worth noting. Or not.

trailblaze
06-29-2008, 03:01 PM
i think we are all at different levels when it comes to understanding whats happen in the world. i know people who are soo clue less i feel sorry for them

Gratefulandy
06-30-2008, 02:41 PM
whos glock is that?!

OverkillZJ
06-30-2008, 02:43 PM
This is an economic and social post, not a political one. I realize you dont respect my political views and I'm fine with that as I assure you I have even less respect for yours.

You hardly even know my political stance.

Where's the crash?

SirFuego
06-30-2008, 05:46 PM
Where's the crash?
He gave his odds at 50/50. So whether it happened or not, no one can claim that he was "wrong" since he admitted it could go equally either way. Heck even if he put his probability at 99.9 to 0.01, no one can claim that he was wrong. That's why weatherman can afford to not predict the weather -- when you institute probabilities, no one can say that you are wrong unless they can mathematically prove that your probabilities are incorrect. :D

I'm giving it a 50% probability that tomorrow Texas will secede from the US and become its own sovereign nation.

YZEATER
06-30-2008, 05:47 PM
He gave his odds at 50/50. So whether it happened or not, no one can claim that he was "wrong" since he admitted it could go equally either way.

I'm giving it a 50% probability that tomorrow Texas will secede from the US and become its own sovereign nation.


ha ha, as good as the weather men.

SirFuego
06-30-2008, 05:50 PM
Heh, apparently I was editing my original post as you put in that reference to weathermen :)

OverkillZJ
06-30-2008, 05:51 PM
Nice.

I give a 50/50 chance that I'll be in a crabby mood tomorrow.

No. Wait. I'm usually in a crabby mood.

notmYJ
06-30-2008, 10:23 PM
so....70/30?

psychobilly
06-30-2008, 10:36 PM
Yep, like I said, I wasnt predicting it, just wanted to discuss how were setting up for it. If you look to history today had about the best odds we've seen in awhile. I'd never give more than a 50/50 chance on it, you'd need to be a fool. There was lots of tension going to the market today. I'm just glad I'm out of it.

DMG
06-30-2008, 10:52 PM
Yep, like I said, I wasnt predicting it, just wanted to discuss how were setting up for it. If you look to history today had about the best odds we've seen in awhile. I'd never give more than a 50/50 chance on it, you'd need to be a fool. There was lots of tension going to the market today. I'm just glad I'm out of it.

Unless you work on Wall Street, you are several big steps behind the market. That is why 99% of day-traders consistently lose money.

IMHO, trends in the oil market are setting us up for a more stable market now. But I am not on Wall Street either.

psychobilly
07-01-2008, 08:06 AM
It could be set to make some gains, it can go either way obviously. It basically has crashed already though, monday was the close of the 2nd quarter and it closed down 2.1 trillion dollars. And there is a bunch of doom and gloom out there today so I'm just waiting to see a panic sell off. Since the market can be swayed more by social and psychological perception than economic it will almost be a miracle if it doesnt happen.

jeepxj3
07-01-2008, 08:29 AM
http://firstrung.co.uk/dbimgs/iStock_can%20of%20worms.jpg

OverkillZJ
07-01-2008, 08:49 AM
"It has basically crashed already" - Funny, I didn't realize you were a stock analyst or financial adviser. :overkill:

EDIT: You didn't start this as a discussion, you started this as a statement. Your title is "WHO'S READY FOR THE MARKET CRASH." Your title is not "Let's discuss the condition of the market."

Your posts all go the same way, you post a radical statement, most of us disagree and razz you about it, some agree with you, and everyone wonders why we're talking about this instead of wheeling in the first place.

jeeperdirt
07-01-2008, 10:42 AM
... and I wonder why I'm even reading this thread... I'm trying to get back into wheeling, not investing!

psychobilly
07-01-2008, 02:51 PM
and everyone wonders why we're talking about this instead of wheeling in the first place.

Well for one, its in the off topic. Why even have "off topic" if off topic posts are a problem?


and I dont claim to be a financial adviser there fella so dont try to make me something I'm not. I'm Just a guy watching from the sidelines and I find these current events interesting. Make nothing more of it.

this is an example of what I find interesting.



General Motors' stock price fell on Monday to levels last seen in 1954, as investors fretted over its falling sales and as some analysts wondered if the iconic US automaker's glory days are in the rearview mirror

Muzikman
07-01-2008, 03:55 PM
GM's glory days have been in the rear view mirror for 15-20 years.

Jpdst29
07-01-2008, 08:38 PM
when owning a Jeep, how can you have any money left over to invest when it is all spent on mod's?

YZEATER
07-01-2008, 10:29 PM
GM's glory days have been in the rear view mirror for 15-20 years.

they probably lost all hope when i bought my f350.

jeeperdirt
07-02-2008, 12:27 AM
when owning a Jeep, how can you have any money left over to invest when it is all spent on mod's?

Lol.... :048:

gonecheenin
07-02-2008, 04:35 AM
they probably lost all hope when i bought my f350.

Yeah, specially after I bought my F-250 :082:

Alley
07-02-2008, 12:03 PM
I wish I knew more about investing, I worked at a bank and pretended pretty well I knew what I was talking about. But, really our investment banker was just a really hot guy with an accent.... So, I liked to talk to him whenever I could. :055: Nothing sank in.

psychobilly
10-08-2008, 02:12 AM
and everyone wonders why we're talking about this instead of wheeling in the first place



Yep, like I said, I wasnt predicting it, just wanted to discuss how were setting up for it.



Doesnt seem so stupid now does it, saying we were set for a market crash or talking about it? It has been quite obvious for some time that there have been problems. This mess didnt all start the night GW gave his address, its been setting up for some time now.

And so now at this point, with the market sheding what, 6-7 trillion??? and the govs intervention via a bailout I just dont think we should be rooting for the DOW to climb. From where we stand right now we simply need a shift of wealth to the working class. In 1929, the market crashed. It crashed and the economy went belly up for the same reasons were having troubles right now, at least according to what I think is the strongest theory. I think its strong because its theorists were the only ones who predicted the crash of 29 and they were dead on. In a nutshell the gov adopted a policy of inflation or expansion of the money supply, exactly like what we have today a'la Bush economics. It got to a point that working people simply lost purchasing power, business was good, the market boomed but credit was the only way John Q could keep up with inflation and keep business booming. The credit boom thus fed the inflation boom and like a rash on a hookers ass, it grew out of control. The banks were lending, lending, lending and it got to a point that they felt they may be over extended and credit began to dry up. It was a snowball gaining momentum as credit had inflated prices simply to high, both cost of living and cost of doing business. In Oct 1929 the inflation tax came due, the market began to show the real economic state as people had to begin to live within their means. The "free" market was forcing business to adapt to this. President Hoover was advised by his sec of the treasury, Andrew Mellon to just allow the market to flush the shit from its pipes, allow the market and capitalism to work, let business adapt to the change or fail. Hoover instead decided to attempt to bailout banks, business and even city governments (next?), he tried to unclog the pipes by taking a big stinky shit in a backed up toilet. The market recovered in the next couple months to early 1929 levels but this was short term and the real economy didnt recover until we entered the WWII economic boom. Because of inflation the working mans money was worth about as much as the paper he wiped his ass with. Hoovers interventions fixed prices, it didnt put purchasing power back in the peoples hands. I keep saying were making history today but in reality this could just be history repeating.

BigDukeSix
10-08-2008, 06:23 AM
-
everyone wonders why we're talking about this instead of wheeling in the first place.

lmfao!!!!

OverkillZJ
10-08-2008, 09:19 AM
From where we stand right now we simply need a shift of wealth to the working class.



Did you earn it?



In 1929, the market crashed. It crashed and the economy went belly up for the same reasons were having troubles right now, at least according to what I think is the strongest theory. I think its strong because its theorists were the only ones who predicted the crash of 29 and they were dead on.



Someone is always predicting something. Someone will always be "amazingly right."

I predict a huge astroid hits North America this afternoon. If I'm wrong, no one will remember it. If I'm right, I'm a genius (well, in this case no one would be around to remember it.




In a nutshell the gov adopted a policy of inflation or expansion of the money supply, exactly like what we have today a'la Bush economics. It got to a point that working people simply lost purchasing power, business was good, the market boomed but credit was the only way John Q could keep up with inflation and keep business booming. The credit boom thus fed the inflation boom and like a rash on a hookers ass, it grew out of control. The banks were lending, lending, lending and it got to a point that they felt they may be over extended and credit began to dry up. It was a snowball gaining momentum as credit had inflated prices simply to high, both cost of living and cost of doing business.



If you're comparing then to now, then the real question is, why were the banks lending so much? Why were so many subprime mortgages given out to folks with crappy credit that couldn't pay? There's a whole lot of theories out there, some based in fact, some not so much, but there's one consitency I see: I want more, I want more, I want more, and I'm going to spend it whether I can afford it, and I'm going to spend it whether I can pay back the credit or not.

This whole was dug by many, don't be so quick to point fingers.




In Oct 1929 the inflation tax came due, the market began to show the real economic state as people had to begin to live within their means. The "free" market was forcing business to adapt to this. President Hoover was advised by his sec of the treasury, Andrew Mellon to just allow the market to flush the shit from its pipes, allow the market and capitalism to work, let business adapt to the change or fail. Hoover instead decided to attempt to bailout banks, business and even city governments (next?), he tried to unclog the pipes by taking a big stinky shit in a backed up toilet. The market recovered in the next couple months to early 1929 levels but this was short term and the real economy didnt recover until we entered the WWII economic boom. Because of inflation the working mans money was worth about as much as the paper he wiped his ass with. Hoovers interventions fixed prices, it didnt put purchasing power back in the peoples hands. I keep saying were making history today but in reality this could just be history repeating.


Bailout is crap. I sure whish I could run my business into the ground, and get a handout from taxpayers.

I believe we can recover from this, but panic doesn't help, nor will any shift of wealth fix this; I still don't understand why folks think taking money away from those that actually produce wealth products and solutions is ever the solution. (I of course have some exceptions in there, such as CEO's who run company's into the ground and continue to collect massive bonuses, which in the bailout are even paid by our taxes at first. That's called bipartisan bullshit!)

Bird_Flu
10-08-2008, 12:08 PM
Bailout is crap. I sure whish I could run my business into the ground, and get a handout from taxpayers.

I believe we can recover from this, but panic doesn't help, nor will any shift of wealth fix this; I still don't understand why folks think taking money away from those that actually produce wealth products and solutions is ever the solution. (I of course have some exceptions in there, such as CEO's who run company's into the ground and continue to collect massive bonuses, which in the bailout are even paid by our taxes at first. That's called bipartisan bullshit!)

xeleventy billion.

The reason banks were lending out so much is because the interest rate was so low, the prime rate 5 years ago was 1%. To a bank that is basically free money, so the standards got lowered as to who was able to borrow, higher risk loans, when the interest rate readjusted and the risky loans started going belly up, whoops, no one wants to lend money anymore. Blame who you want to but there was a lot of greed in the lending practices.

And I agree 110% with Matt, if you ran your company into the ground my tax dollars should be paying for your next yacht, how about you use some of your private wealth to now help the hundreds or thousands of employees you just screwed. Take Lehman brothers for example, several employees have now been told they will no longer be getting their severance checks. No warning, just I'm sorry we may have told you that you get severance but not anymore. Yet their CEO walked away with a mega bonus.

Or we can talk about Washington Mutual, the previous CEO got a huge go away package and the CEO for 17 days before they were sold walked away with almost $30 million. I calculated it if he worked 12 hours a day he was making over $98,000/hour.

psychobilly
10-08-2008, 12:50 PM
I'm not saying give any single person anything. When I say we need a shift of wealth to the working man I mean we need to curb inflation, not feed it, we need prices to come back to earth thus giving us real purchasing power...a shift of wealth. And your fawkin right I earned what I make, and I deserve to live a good life on what I make. I dont even own a credit card, have not and will not.



This whole was dug by many, don't be so quick to point fingers.


I can point fingers, I look in the hole and see whos digging it....I seen it over a year ago and I got out of the financal market. I owned several bankshares and it was REAL obvious by june 2007 that there was serious trouble. I've kept up on it ever since, watching futures markets and the feds actions etc. But now up until the 11th hour our leaders who plan and control our economic policies denied there was any problem?? Come on, there were plenty of people who warned about it and almost every economic theory hinted towards it. They could of prevented a bunch of the mess if they would of acted a year ago (or maybe 4 years ago). for example they could of wiped out the mark to market accounting rules that helped compound the problem. Look also at current outstanding derivatives, estimated to be what now, 700 trillion to a quadrillion?? They have almost doubled every year since 2004 and it was just ignored, the derivatives market remains unregulated. Yes, you CAN blame the bush administration and their policy, it should of been regulated and not allowed to get to this point. That is pretty freakin significant, 1 quadrillion it dwarfs the entire value of the worlds economy. Remember that the next time you hear McCain say the fundamentals of our economy are strong. This mess is what GW hinted on in his address, if you watch it again and spend ANY real time getting up to date with markets you will pick up on it. Thus the gov keeps inflating money, its an attempt to chase after outstanding debts and that inflation makes the working folks poorer. The inflation tax has come due, just like it did in argentina some years ago. I dont know if you looked around out there but I dont see enough foreclosed homes to crash our economy, to in fact crash the world economy. If you even think about it, it sounds kinda silly dont it, that a home losing some of its value (not all of it) can bring down the worlds economy.The problem is way deeper than a homeowner not making his payments and in fact the homeowner not making his payments is DIRECTLY related to, not the root cause of. Its time you realize that because right now were setting up to be the next ones run over by this snowball. Alt-A mortgages (above sub prime) have seen a default rate that has quadrupled this year and prime mortgage defaults have more than doubled. Demand accountable leaders, demand a change in policy that curbs inflation, make it well known that you will work to remove from office ANYONE who supports any policy that promotes inflation and transfer of wealth from the working class.

psychobilly
10-08-2008, 01:04 PM
I still don't understand why folks think taking money away from those that actually produce wealth products and solutions is ever the solution


And furthermore, the people spending real assests is what produces wealth. As I pointed out above, those "producers" you talk about have inflated the derivatives market beyond the value of the entire worlds economy. How is that "producing"? I call it "creating" and then taxing the working man via inflation in order to cover it. Capitalism has to be allowed to work from this point. We agree on one thing for certain, that a bailout is bad business. This mess could be the one to prove Marx right if we dont get capitalism back on the right track. Allow bad business to fail and take its debt with it. Inflating the money even more to cover it I just REALLY REALLY think is a bad idea.

r6cyclegal
10-09-2008, 11:21 AM
Agghhhh!! Too many words and not enough sarcasm!!! What a boring thread :)

BAD_GNR
10-09-2008, 11:31 AM
Agghhhh!! Too many words and not enough sarcasm!!! What a boring thread :)


Again,

Jeffy likes apples. Happy?